Valuation Updates

Here are some updates on companies I valued earlier this year

First Solar: I came up with a fair value of ~$31/share in January, and suggested huge uncertainty around that estimate. I even embarked on a put campaign when it dipped to my target buy price near $25, before it roared back to nearly $50.

Under Armour: I estimated UA to be worth about $17.50. Since then, it has simply hovered in the $15-$20 range. I’ve been trying to build a position in UA by writing puts. In August 2017, I bought 40% of my target allocation for $16.15. The recent swoon in prices has me eyeing a second slug.

VF Corp: I thought VFC was worth about $65, when it was selling in the low $50s. Since then, it has bounced back to $63 and change. I have no position in the stock currently, although I did make a decent return writing puts.

Hanesbrand: I came up with a conservative $20-25 range for HBI, when it was trading at the lower end of that range. Currently, it is trading at the higher end of that range.

Compounding Insurers: In April, I updated by valuation of BRK ($200), MKL ($1080) and Fairfax ($580). Since FFH was cheap for a large part of the year, I doubled my position. Just today, the price breached $500 on the back of a stellar Fairfax Asia deal.

ALJ Regional Holdings: A depressed fair value estimate for the company is about $3.40. But buying ALJJ is a bet on the jockey. It could be worth more than $5 shortly. I have been buying ALJJ since June.

Others: I thought Charles Schwab was an excellent company worth somewhere between $30 and $40, and that GameStop was a struggling retailer that might still be worth about $25-30. Finally, I estimated the value of Disney to be $120.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s